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Forecast for 2015 Elections

The Polling Observatory team is a polling prediction organization made up of professors and lecturers from various American and British universities. The latest significant addition to the analyst team was Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin, who helped provide a detailed forecast for 2015. The forecasting method used by the Polling Observatory team…

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Scottish Referendum Forecast by the Polling Observatory

The Polling Observatory is a well-known association of political scientists and sociologists who specialize in predicting various elections by analyzing polls from previous years. Let's find out what methods they used to predict the Scottish referendum. First of all, an important aspect of the preparation of the prediction was the analysis of surveys over the past…

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Poll Volatility Does Not Mean Opinion Volatility

The main mistake of many novice analysts and political scientists is the direct interpretation of public tests. Many believe that a large difference in test figures over different periods indicates a fundamental change in public opinion. The recent studies by the Polling Observatory show that this is not at all the case. Such correlations depend on…

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The Polling Observatory Forecast for Conservative Party

The main topic of discussion among political scientists and sociologists of all stripes was the decline in the popularity of conservatives based on public polls. Analysts noticed a decline from 36.2% to 35.5%. Let's try to figure out whether such a decline is critical and whether public polls really reflect the real state of affairs…

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