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The Polling Observatory Forecast for Conservative Party

The main topic of discussion among political scientists and sociologists of all stripes was the decline in the popularity of conservatives based on public polls. Analysts noticed a decline from 36.2% to 35.5%. Let’s try to figure out whether such a decline is critical and whether public polls really reflect the real state of affairs so plausibly.

The Polling Observatory organization specializes in the analysis of public polls and has its own vision of this situation. Analysts of the organization are inclined to believe that this change does not indicate the strengthening of the positions of the Laborites, but the loss of positions by the Conservatives, which puts them on the same level, and by no means puts the Laborites higher.

This effect is due to the fact that Labor is always in a shaky position of the so-called “statistical error”. About 1% of Liberal Party voters constantly change their minds and are not ardent supporters.

The electorate of the traditional party is the voters who are confident in their position. Thus, an unorganized majority has the same chance of success as an organized minority in winning seats in parliament. The Conservatives are more likely to hold these seats.

Thus, these changes in public polls will not affect the results of the 2015 elections in any way. We are talking only about small statistical fluctuations.