The Polling Observatory is a well-known association of political scientists and sociologists who specialize in predicting various elections by analyzing polls from previous years. Let’s find out what methods they used to predict the Scottish referendum.
First of all, an important aspect of the preparation of the prediction was the analysis of surveys over the past years. The strong influence of the media and the personal preferences of sociologists strongly influenced the results of the polls.
Therefore, the first method that was adopted was the analysis of surveys through the prism of House effects, which made it possible to take a more objective look at survey data and avoid the influence of personal preferences on the study being conducted.
The second important point was the calculation of the share of undecided since it is they who, according to experts, will play a decisive role. The fact is that both camps “YES” and “NO” occupy approximately half of the total.
According to polls, the aspect ratio fluctuates around 52/48, either in one direction or the other. In these disputes, the decisive role is played by people who at the last moment decide to join one of the camps.
A key feature of the Scottish referendum is the record turnout expected. Typically, the turnout of such events reaches a maximum of 80-83 percent. However, in this case, analysts expect about 97% attendance. Such a turnout may have an unexpected effect on the results.