Many political scientists and analysts, referring to recent public polls, hastened to declare that the Labour Party is losing its positions, and the power of the Conservatives is strengthening. Let’s find out the opinion of experts from the Polling Observatory on this matter.
The main message of the experts from the Polling Observatory is the extreme ambiguity of public tests. Each indicator should be considered in a set of interrelated triggers that act as indicators of various processes in society.
Recent public tests show that Labour’s support has fallen by 1.1 points, which is indeed a very impressive figure. However, many make the mistake of automatically assigning these scores to conservatives.
Analysts warn against such a mistake and remind that the weakening of the positions of the Laborites does not mean the strengthening of the positions of the Conservatives.
In addition, the losses of the Conservatives will be more tangible with a drawdown of the same number of points, since democratic voters are more flexible and younger and are able to change their minds often and without difficulty.
Conservatives, on the other hand, are less flexible and, having lost their positions, are not able to quickly recover from such a blow.
Thus, the decline in the popularity of democrats most likely indicates the presence of a “pit” before a rapid and strong surge in popularity.