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Major Failures of Modern Political Science

Political science and sociology provide analysts with powerful and reliable tools to make highly detailed and accurate predictions about elections, elect new politicians, and forge political alliances. Still, there are actions that are out of the picture of global events and occur contrary to all forecasts and expectations.

One such thing was the fall of the Berlin Wall. Let’s find out about the biggest events of the modern world that amazed the analysts from the Polling Observatory.

None of the analysts, governmental scientists, and sociologists believed in the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. The logical candidate for the presidency was Hillary Clinton, who has strong political connections and experience. Still, the mood of the public is prone to unexpected outbursts.

The eccentric Donald Trump became president. At the moment, sociologists consider such events unpredictable. There are some analysts who believe that the well-established academic framework of forecasting is to blame.

Another activity that surprised the experts was Brexit. The exit of Britain from the European Union came as a shock to many experts who predicted the eternal membership of the United Kingdom in the EU. This was not destined to happen. No prestigious research institute has declared its belief in the plausibility of this event, but it happened.

Modern governmental scientists believe that forecasting such unlikely events will be possible when such predictions do not carry reputational risks for organizations. Indeed, in the case of such an eccentric prediction, a prestigious institution may lose its reputation.